Tredegar Crime Rate September 2023 | Monthly Statistics

Violence and sexual offences in Tredegar during September 2023 stood at 3.9 per 1,000 residents, 42% above the UK average for this category. This stark divergence from national trends highlights a pressing concern in the area. With 52 reported cases of violence and sexual offences accounting for 33.6% of all crimes, the data suggests a significant imbalance in crime distribution compared to the UK, where such offences average 2.7 per 1,000. The local context may be influenced by seasonal factors such as the return of students to educational institutions and the transition to shorter evenings, which could contribute to increased social interactions in public spaces. Public order offences, at 2.4 per 1,000 (287% above the UK average), further underscore a pattern of disruptions that may be amplified by the area's characteristics. Anti-social behaviour, at 2.2 per 1,000 (64% above the UK average), adds to the complexity of the local crime picture. While the overall crime rate of 11.7 per 1,000 is 46.2% higher than the UK average, the breakdown reveals that property crimes (34 total) are relatively subdued compared to violent crimes. This contrast may reflect the area's urban density and the presence of community hubs that could either exacerbate or mitigate certain types of criminal activity. The seasonal context of September—marking the start of the academic year and the onset of cooler weather—may play a role in shaping these patterns, though the exact mechanisms remain to be explored.

September 2023 saw a 300% increase in drug-related crimes, rising from 1 to 4 incidents. This surge, though small in absolute terms, may be linked to seasonal transitions or changes in local patterns. Public order offences doubled month-on-month, jumping from 16 to 32 cases. This 100% increase could be tied to the return of students and the associated social dynamics in Tredegar. Conversely, possession of weapons fell by two-thirds (from 3 to 1), reflecting a temporary reduction in related incidents. Vehicle crime decreased slightly by 9.1% (from 11 to 10), though the rate remains 67% above the UK average. Other thefts also dropped by 40% (from 10 to 6), but the category's rate is still 17% below the UK benchmark. The data reveals a stark contrast between categories: while violent crimes dominate (33.6% of total), theft from the person (0.3 per 1,000) is 131% above the UK average, suggesting targeted vulnerabilities in personal security. Bicycle theft, though minimal (1 case), matches the UK rate exactly, indicating no significant local anomaly in this area.

The crime rate in Tredegar rose 24.0% from 9.4 per 1,000 in August 2023 to 11.7 per 1,000 in September 2023. This increase, though modest in absolute terms, translates to 155 total crimes over 30 days—roughly 5 crimes per day, or one reported crime for every 85 residents during the month. Compared to the UK average, Tredegar's rate remains elevated, but the monthly exposure metric (1-in-85 residents) provides a concrete local perspective. The population context of 13,235 residents means that the crime rate is scaled to a community size that could influence the perception of safety. While the daily crime count is a useful local indicator, it does not directly compare to national figures. The 24% month-on-month increase may be partly attributed to the seasonal rhythm of September, with returning students and the onset of darker evenings altering social and criminal dynamics. However, the exact drivers of this rise remain speculative, as specific causal factors. Residents may find the 1-in-85 figure particularly relevant when assessing the monthly risk profile of their neighbourhood.