Caerphilly Crime Rate November 2023 | Monthly Statistics

November 2023 saw Caerphilly's overall crime rate stand at 8.0 per 1,000 residents, placing it 6.7% above the UK average of 7.5 per 1,000. This figure reflects a combination of seasonal and local factors, with the month’s darker evenings and pre-Christmas shopping activity likely contributing to patterns observed in crime reporting. Violence and sexual offences accounted for nearly 40% of all recorded crimes, followed by anti-social behaviour (16.1%) and criminal damage and arson (11.7%). These figures align with the area’s profile as a mixed urban-rural district with a significant retail presence and community spaces that may amplify certain types of crime. The prominence of violence and sexual offences could be linked to increased social interactions during events like Bonfire Night, while anti-social behaviour may reflect heightened tensions in residential areas during colder months. Meanwhile, the relatively low rates of burglary (2.0 per 1,000) and shoplifting (0.3 per 1,000) suggest that targeted crime prevention efforts in commercial zones may be having an effect, though these figures remain below UK averages for those categories. The seasonal context of November—marked by shorter days and the start of the festive shopping period—likely influenced both the volume and nature of crimes reported, with public order offences and anti-social behaviour rising in tandem with late-night activity. These patterns underscore the need for ongoing community engagement and resource allocation to address specific vulnerabilities in the area.

The most dramatic month-on-month shift in November 2023 was the 111.1% increase in crimes related to possession of weapons, rising from 9 to 19 incidents. This sharp rise, though still low in absolute terms, may indicate a shift in criminal activity patterns, potentially linked to seasonal factors or changes in policing focus. Conversely, burglary rates fell by 50.0% compared to the previous month, with 28 incidents recorded in November (down from 56 in October), suggesting possible success in targeted interventions or reduced opportunities for property crime. Violent crimes, which made up 39.3% of the total, remained significantly above the UK average for this category, with a rate of 3.2 per 1,000 residents compared to the national figure of 2.6 per 1,000. This disparity highlights the area’s particular challenges in managing violent crime, which may be exacerbated by local dynamics such as community tensions or alcohol-related incidents during late-night events. Meanwhile, shoplifting rates dropped 45% below the UK average, with 0.3 per 1,000 residents in Caerphilly compared to the national rate of 0.6 per 1,000. This contrast could reflect effective retail security measures or a lower prevalence of opportunistic theft in the area’s commercial districts. For residents, the most immediately relevant insight is the 80.0% drop in theft from the person, from 5 to 1 incident, which may indicate successful policing of high-risk areas during November’s darker evenings.

Caerphilly’s crime rate in November 2023 (8.0 per 1,000 residents) marked a 15.4% decrease from the previous month’s rate of 9.5 per 1,000, indicating a notable short-term decline in overall criminal activity. On a daily basis, the area experienced an average of 47 crimes per day over the 30-day period, a figure that provides a tangible sense of the frequency of incidents faced by local residents. When scaled to the population of 176,865, this translates to a monthly exposure rate of roughly one crime per 125 residents, a statistic that underscores the proportion of the population affected by crime each month. This figure is particularly useful for understanding the relative risk faced by individuals in the area, though it does not account for variations in population density or localised hotspots. The comparison to the previous month also highlights the fluctuating nature of crime rates, with the sharp decline in November possibly linked to seasonal factors such as the end of the festive shopping season or changes in police deployment. While the overall rate remains above the UK average, the month-on-month reduction suggests that local authorities may have implemented effective strategies to mitigate crime, though sustained efforts will be needed to maintain this trend.