Carmarthen Crime Rate July 2024 | Monthly Statistics

Carmarthen's crime rate in July 2024 stood at 13.6 per 1,000 residents, placing it 61.9% above the UK average of 8.4 per 1,000. This figure reflects a persistent challenge for the built-up area within Carmarthenshire, where the combination of urban density and seasonal activity appears to amplify certain crime patterns. Violence and sexual offences accounted for 43.8% of all reported crimes, making them the most prevalent category, followed by criminal damage and arson (11.1%) and public order offences (9.1%). These figures align with the characteristics of a mid-sized town with a mix of residential, commercial, and tourist spaces, where the summer season typically draws more visitors and extends evening activity. The high rate of violent crime may partly explain the sharp rise in robbery cases, though no direct link to specific events is evident in the data. Seasonal factors such as school holidays, festivals, and the peak of the tourism season in July could contribute to increased foot traffic in public areas, creating opportunities for crime. However, the exact causes of these trends, and local initiatives such as community policing or event-specific security measures may also play a role. The relatively low rate of shoplifting (3.9% below the UK average) suggests that retail areas may have implemented effective deterrents, though this remains speculative without further evidence.

July 2024 saw a dramatic 100% increase in robbery cases, jumping from zero to three incidents. This surge, while small in absolute terms, highlights a significant shift in crime dynamics. Concurrently, criminal damage and arson rose by 91.7%, from 12 to 23 cases, marking one of the most pronounced month-on-month swings in the dataset. These increases contrast sharply with declines in vehicle crime (-75.0%, from 8 to 2) and shoplifting (-61.9%, from 21 to 8), which may reflect seasonal patterns such as fewer vehicles on the road during school holidays and reduced retail activity in the evenings. The breakdown of crime types also reveals stark contrasts with the UK average: violence and sexual offences are 111% above the national rate, while anti-social behaviour is 17% below. This divergence suggests that Carmarthen's unique social and environmental context—possibly influenced by its role as a regional hub for services and tourism—shapes local crime patterns differently than the broader UK. For residents, the most immediately relevant finding is the doubling of robbery incidents, which may warrant increased vigilance in public spaces during late hours.

Carmarthen's crime rate in July 2024 remained stable compared to June, with a marginal 0.4% decrease from 13.7 to 13.6 per 1,000 residents. This suggests that the overall crime profile has not shifted dramatically over the past month, despite notable fluctuations in specific categories. On a daily basis, the area experienced an average of seven crimes per day, a figure that translates to one reported crime for roughly every 74 residents over the course of the month. While this monthly exposure rate provides context for residents, it does not account for variations in daily activity or the distribution of crime across different times of day. When compared to the UK average, Carmarthen's crime rate remains substantially higher, but the stability between June and July indicates that no major external factors—such as a new initiative or a large-scale event—have significantly altered the trajectory. The population-scaled perspective also reveals that, despite the high overall rate, the absolute number of crimes (208) is relatively low in proportion to the town's 15,295 residents, suggesting that the crime problem, while significant, is not yet overwhelming. This balance of high rates and manageable totals underscores the need for targeted interventions rather than broad-scale measures.