Ceredigion Crime Rate July 2025 | Monthly Statistics

July 2025 saw Ceredigion's overall crime rate at 6.9 per 1,000 residents, placing the area 19.8% below the UK average of 8.6. This figure reflects a combination of seasonal factors and local dynamics, with violence and sexual offences accounting for nearly half (48.2%) of all reported crimes. The dominance of violent crime over property crime — which made up just 24% of the total — contrasts with national trends where property crimes often outnumber violent ones. This pattern may be partly explained by Ceredigion's character as a largely rural district with limited retail density, reducing opportunities for theft but potentially increasing exposure to interpersonal conflicts during peak tourist season. Anti-social behaviour, at 0.7 per 1,000, was lower than the UK average, linked to the area's quieter pace of life compared to urban centres. The seasonal context of July — marked by festivals, school holidays, and increased tourism — likely contributed to fluctuations in specific crime types. For instance, the 100% rise in weapons possession offences could be tied to heightened tensions during large gatherings, while the sharp decline in bicycle theft may reflect reduced outdoor activity or improved security measures during the summer months.

The most dramatic month-on-month change in July 2025 was a 100% increase in possession of weapons offences, rising from 4 to 8 incidents. This spike, though small in absolute terms, contrasts with a 57.1% drop in vehicle crime and a 66.7% decline in bicycle theft, which may partly reflect seasonal factors such as reduced outdoor activity and increased vehicle security during festivals. Violence and sexual offences remained the most prevalent category (48.2% of total crimes), with a rate of 3.3 per 1,000 — 9% above the UK average for this category. Anti-social behaviour, at 0.7 per 1,000, was 55% below the UK average, potentially linked to the area's lower population density and seasonal tourism patterns. The 56% increase in other thefts (25 to 39) suggests shifting criminal focus, though the exact drivers remain unclear without further data.

Ceredigion's crime rate in July 2025 rose 18.8% from 5.8 to 6.9 per 1,000 residents compared to June, reflecting a shift in crime patterns during peak summer. Daily crime activity averaged 16 incidents per day, a figure that, while localised, provides context for community vigilance. Over the course of the month, one crime occurred for every 145 residents, a monthly exposure rate that places Ceredigion well below the UK average for similar areas. This metric, when considered alongside population-scaled data, suggests a relatively stable environment despite the month-on-month increase. The shift from June to July may partly reflect seasonal transitions, such as the influx of tourists during festivals and the closure of schools, which can alter local dynamics. However, the absence of a corresponding rise in property crimes or vehicle theft indicates that the increase is concentrated in specific categories, violence and weapons-related offences.