Cotswold Crime Rate November 2023 | Monthly Statistics

Cotswold’s crime profile in November 2023 reveals a continued divergence from national trends, with the area’s overall crime rate of 5.3 per 1,000 residents placing it 29.3% below the UK average of 7.5. This gap is particularly pronounced in categories such as violence and sexual offences, anti-social behaviour, and shoplifting, where local rates are 31% to 45% below their UK counterparts. The most prevalent crimes—violence and sexual offences (32.9% of total incidents) and anti-social behaviour (14.0%)—suggest a focus on interpersonal conflicts and community disruptions, which may be influenced by seasonal factors like Bonfire Night and the transition to darker evenings. While property crimes accounted for 41% of all incidents, the rate of these offences (2.6 per 1,000) remains significantly lower than the UK average (3.1 per 1,000). This balance between property and violent crime highlights Cotswold’s unique character as a rural and semi-urban district, where the limited presence of high-density commercial or residential areas may reduce opportunities for property-related offences. However, the sharp rise in robbery (300%) and other theft (58.1%) underscores the potential impact of specific events, such as the Black Friday shopping period, which can temporarily elevate theft rates even in areas with generally low crime levels. These patterns are consistent with broader UK data, which shows that rural and semi-urban regions often experience lower overall crime rates but may see localized spikes during high-traffic periods.

November 2023 saw sharp fluctuations in specific crime categories, with robbery incidents surging by 300% (from 1 to 4) and other theft rising by 58.1% (31 to 49). These increases, though statistically significant, remain relatively low in absolute terms, with robbery still representing just 0.8% of all crimes. Conversely, burglary fell by 43.6% (39 to 22), a decline that may reflect improved security measures or seasonal factors, such as reduced outdoor activity during darker evenings. The balance between property and violent crime remained tilted toward property offences, with 41% of crimes falling into this category compared to 32.9% for violent crimes. This property-heavy profile is consistent with Cotswold’s character as a largely rural and semi-urban area, where vehicle crime and anti-social behaviour—both of which fell by 23.6% and 20% respectively—may be influenced by local events like Bonfire Night and the early shopping rush of Black Friday. Violent crime rates in Cotswold are 31% below the UK average, a disparity that likely reflects the area’s lower population density and limited nightlife compared to major urban centres.

Cotswold’s November 2023 crime rate of 5.3 per 1,000 residents marks a 7.8% decline from the previous month’s 5.8, reflecting a slight but sustained trend toward lower crime. Over 30 days, the area recorded approximately 16 crimes per day, a figure that translates to one reported crime for roughly every 189 residents over the course of the month. This monthly exposure rate suggests that most residents are not frequently affected by crime, though localized spikes in certain categories may alter this perception. The population-scaled perspective reinforces that Cotswold’s crime profile remains lower than the UK average, with its overall rate 29.3% below the national figure. This contrast is amplified by the fact that several crime types—such as violence and sexual offences, anti-social behaviour, and shoplifting—are recorded at levels 31% to 45% below UK averages, indicating a broader systemic difference in local crime dynamics. These figures, while reassuring, must be contextualized within the area’s unique characteristics, such as its mix of rural and semi-urban environments, which may inherently reduce opportunities for certain types of crime compared to more densely populated regions.