Forest of Dean Crime Rate October 2023 | Monthly Statistics

Forest of Dean’s crime profile in October 2023 reveals a marked dominance of violent crime over property crime, a dynamic that may reflect the area’s unique social and geographical characteristics. With a total crime rate of 6.0 per 1,000 residents—25% below the UK average—the district continues to perform well compared to national benchmarks. Violent and sexual offences, accounting for 44.3% of all recorded crimes, were at the UK average rate of 2.7 per 1,000, suggesting that while the overall rate is lower in Forest of Dean, the proportion of violent crime aligns with national trends. This balance is notable in a rural area, where property crime typically dominates due to factors like isolated homes and fewer commercial hubs. The data indicates that Forest of Dean’s lower crime rate is driven by both reduced property crime and a stable violent crime rate, which contrasts with the UK’s broader trend of higher property crime incidence. The area’s rural nature, with its dispersed population and limited urban centres, likely contributes to this divergence, as crime hotspots in cities tend to skew statistics toward property-related offences. Seasonal factors may also play a role; the rise in public order offences and drug-related crimes in October could be linked to the shorter daylight hours and the Halloween period, which often sees increased social activity and potential for disorder. However, the significant drop in criminal damage and arson by 30.2% compared to September suggests that local initiatives or environmental factors may have mitigated some risks. The low incidence of vehicle crime—62% below the UK average—further underscores the area’s rural character, where fewer vehicles are concentrated in urban environments, reducing opportunities for such offences. While the overall crime rate remains stable, the shift in the balance between violent and property crime highlights the need for continued monitoring and tailored policing strategies to address emerging trends, particularly in public order and drug-related activity.

October 2023 saw a marked shift in crime patterns, with violent crimes (44.3% of total) outpacing property crimes (22.3%), a balance that contrasts with the UK average where property crime typically holds a larger share. Theft from the person rose sharply by 100%, from one to two incidents, a change that may partly reflect increased foot traffic during Halloween events. Conversely, robbery fell by 75%, from four to one, suggesting a possible reduction in high-risk targeted incidents. Anti-social behaviour remained 22% below the UK average, a trend that aligns with the area’s rural character and lower population density. Public order offences, however, rose by 35.6%, potentially influenced by the darker evenings of October and seasonal gatherings. Drug-related crimes also increased by 80%, from five to nine, a figure that, while modest, indicates a need for continued monitoring of local drug-related activity. The decrease in criminal damage and arson by 30.2% may reflect improved community engagement efforts or seasonal factors. These fluctuations highlight the combination of local initiatives and external influences, such as events and weather patterns.

Forest of Dean’s crime rate in October 2023 rose slightly to 6.0 per 1,000 residents, a 5.3% increase from 5.7 per 1,000 in September. This places the area 25% below the UK average of 8.0 per 1,000, a consistent trend that reflects the district’s lower overall crime profile. On a daily basis, the area recorded approximately 17 crimes per day in October, a figure that, while steady, remains lower than the UK average when scaled to population. Over the course of the month, one reported crime occurred for roughly every 167 residents, a monthly exposure rate that suggests a relatively low likelihood of encountering crime for most residents. This statistic, when contextualised with the area’s population of 89,753, highlights that the vast majority of residents experience no crime during any given month. The stability in property crime rates, despite a slight increase in violent crime, underscores the district’s ongoing focus on community policing and its impact on reducing non-violent offences. The area’s rural character, combined with a dispersed population, likely contributes to the lower incidence of vehicle crime and burglary compared to urban centres. However, the rise in public order offences and drug-related crimes in October suggests a need for targeted interventions during seasonal transitions, particularly as darker evenings and events like Halloween may influence local dynamics.