Ash and Ash Vale Crime Rate September 2023 | Monthly Statistics

September 2023 saw Ash and Ash Vale maintain a crime rate of 4.9 per 1,000 residents, placing it 38.7% below the UK average of 8.0 per 1,000. This consistent underperformance relative to national benchmarks suggests a combination of local factors, such as the area’s built-up nature within Guildford and possibly effective community policing or demographic characteristics that mitigate crime. The top crime types were Violence and sexual offences (29 incidents, 23.2% of total), followed by Anti-social behaviour (23, 18.4%) and Vehicle crime (18, 14.4%). Seasonal context plays a role: with September marking the transition from summer to autumn, the return to school and university term activities may have influenced patterns, though the area’s overall low crime levels suggest resilience to seasonal fluctuations. Violence and sexual offences, while the most common category, remain 60% below the UK average, a stark contrast to the 46% above UK average for Vehicle crime. This disparity could reflect differences in local infrastructure, such as the presence of retail centres driving vehicle-related incidents or the area’s lower population density reducing opportunities for certain crimes. The relatively low rates of Shoplifting (64% below UK average) and Burglary (38% below) further indicate that the area’s built-up environment and potential community cohesion contribute to a crime profile distinct from more densely populated or rural regions.

The most dramatic month-on-month shift occurred in Other theft, which rose by 88.9% (from 9 to 17 incidents), marking the largest increase in the dataset. This spike, though still below the UK average, may reflect seasonal factors such as increased retail activity or adjustments in local crime patterns during the back-to-school period. Conversely, Vehicle crime fell by 43.8% (from 32 to 18), potentially linked to reduced daylight hours and fewer vehicles on the road as the month progressed. Violence and sexual offences also decreased by 19.4% (from 36 to 29), a trend consistent with the area’s broader 38.7% deficit compared to the UK average for overall crime. Possession of weapons surged by 100%, moving from zero to one reported incident, a statistic that, while small, warrants attention given its absence in previous months.

The crime rate in Ash and Ash Vale for September 2023 stood at 4.9 per 1,000 residents, marking a 6.1% decrease from the previous month’s rate of 5.3. This decline suggests a slight improvement in local safety metrics, though the area remains well below the UK average. On a daily basis, the 125 reported crimes over 30 days translate to approximately four crimes per day, a figure that reflects the area’s relatively low overall crime profile. When scaled to the population of 25,357, the monthly exposure means one reported crime occurred for roughly every 203 residents—a statistic that provides context for individual risk perception. While the rate has dropped from August, the consistency of low crime levels compared to national averages highlights the area’s unique characteristics, possibly influenced by its built-up nature within Guildford and community-specific factors that contribute to sustained safety outcomes.