Based on available data, the predicted future crime trends in Mid Devon appear to be stable. Currently, the crime rate stands at 60.3 incidents per 1,000 residents. This is notably lower than the UK average of 91.6 incidents per 1,000 residents, suggesting Mid Devon is generally a safer area. The area’s safety score is also comparatively high, at 85 out of 100, exceeding the UK average of 79.
The most significant indicator of future trends is the year-on-year (YoY) change. Data indicates a slight decrease in crime, a -1.4% YoY change. This suggests a stabilising or potentially decreasing trend in criminal activity. It’s important to note that this does not guarantee a continued decline; crime rates can fluctuate due to various socioeconomic factors and changes in policing strategies.
Understanding the context is crucial. While the crime rate is lower than the national average, and the YoY trend is positive, it's important to consider the area's population of 84,993. A small change in reported incidents can significantly impact the per capita rate for a smaller population.
Predicting future crime is complex and influenced by many variables. Continued monitoring of crime statistics, alongside engagement with local law enforcement and community safety initiatives, is recommended. It’s also important to remember that reported crime statistics are only one measure of safety and wellbeing, and don’t reflect the full picture of community resilience and support networks.