Predicting future crime trends is inherently complex, but available data for Pagham in Arun offers a reasonably encouraging outlook. Currently, Pagham exhibits a crime rate of 71.2 incidents per 1,000 residents. This is notably lower than the United Kingdom's average of 91.6 per 1,000, suggesting Pagham is generally a safer area.
The most significant indicator for future trends is the recent year-on-year (YoY) decrease. Crime in Pagham has decreased by 13.3% in the past year. This suggests a positive trajectory in terms of safety. While this decrease is a welcome development, it’s important to remember that crime rates can fluctuate. A single year's decline doesn’t guarantee a permanent trend.
Pagham also boasts a strong safety score of 86 out of 100, which is considerably higher than the UK average of 79. This score likely reflects a combination of factors, including the low crime rate and potentially community engagement and policing effectiveness. The population of Pagham is 1558, which is a relatively small community; this can impact statistical significance and make trends more susceptible to minor fluctuations.
It’s crucial to consider that these are statistical indicators, and predicting the future with certainty is impossible. Changes in local demographics, economic conditions, or policing strategies could all influence future crime rates. Continued monitoring of crime statistics and community feedback will be essential to assess whether the current downward trend continues. While the data suggests a positive outlook, proactive community involvement remains vital for maintaining a safe environment in Pagham.