Carmarthen Crime Rate October 2023 | Monthly Statistics

Violence and sexual offences in Carmarthen during October 2023 reached 4.5 per 1,000 residents, a figure 67% above the UK average. This stark outlier underscores a significant imbalance in the area’s crime profile compared to national trends. The overall crime rate for the month stood at 9.5 per 1,000 residents, placing Carmarthen 18.8% above the UK average of 8.0. Violence and sexual offences accounted for 46.9% of all crimes, followed by anti-social behaviour (13.1%) and public order offences (11.0%). These figures suggest a pronounced focus on interpersonal and community-level incidents, contrasting with the UK-wide emphasis on property crimes. October’s seasonal context—darker evenings, the transition to British Summer Time, and Halloween—may have contributed to increased opportunities for such crimes. The area’s built-up character within Carmarthenshire, likely featuring a mix of residential and commercial spaces, could explain the prevalence of public order and anti-social behaviour incidents. While property crimes like shoplifting and criminal damage remained above UK averages, they represented a smaller share of total crimes, indicating a shift in crime dynamics compared to the national picture. This pattern suggests a need for targeted interventions in high-traffic or nightlife areas, though the exact drivers remain to be explored through further analysis.

Month-on-month changes in October 2023 revealed notable shifts in crime patterns. Burglary increased by 100% (0 to 4 incidents), alongside a 100% rise in vehicle crime (0 to 1) and theft from the person (0 to 2). These spikes, though small in absolute terms, highlight vulnerabilities in residential and vehicle security. Conversely, shoplifting fell by 62.5% (32 to 12), and other theft dropped by 70% (10 to 3), suggesting potential success from local policing efforts or seasonal factors. The crime mix also shifted significantly: violent crimes (46.9%) now dominate over property crimes, which accounted for just 28.8% of total incidents. This reversal from typical UK patterns, where property crimes often lead, indicates a unique local challenge. Public order offences (11.0 per 1,000) and drug-related crimes (0.5 per 1,000) were both 38% and 150% above UK averages respectively, pointing to specific pressures in the area. For residents, the 100% increase in burglary—though limited to four incidents—may prompt reviews of home security measures, particularly in areas with higher foot traffic or transient populations.

Carmarthen’s crime rate in October 2023 (9.5 per 1,000) marked a 15.2% decrease from the previous month’s 11.2 per 1,000, reflecting a downward trend despite the overall rate remaining above the UK average. This reduction aligns with a daily crime count of approximately 5 incidents per day, or one reported crime for every 105 residents over the course of the month. When contextualised against the area’s population of 15,295, this translates to a relatively low frequency of crime compared to larger urban centres, though the rate still exceeds the UK norm. The 18.8% gap above the UK average underscores the need for targeted strategies to address localised issues such as public order and violence. The decline from November’s rate may be linked to seasonal factors, including the end of the university term or reduced foot traffic during the autumn break. However, the persistence of above-average rates in violence and drug-related crimes suggests deeper systemic challenges. For residents, the 1-in-105 monthly exposure figure provides a tangible measure of risk, though this aggregate does not capture the uneven distribution of crime across specific neighbourhoods or times of day.