Carmarthen Crime Rate September 2025 | Monthly Statistics

Carmarthen's crime profile in September 2025 reveals a marked imbalance between violent and property crime, with the former accounting for 47.2% of all incidents. At 10.4 crimes per 1,000 residents, the area's overall crime rate is 40.5% above the UK average of 7.4 per 1,000, highlighting a significant divergence from national trends. Violence and sexual offences alone constitute 75 of the 159 reported crimes, a figure that is 90% higher than the UK average for this category. This stark dominance of violent crime contrasts with property crimes, which account for 28.2% of the total (45 incidents), though this remains elevated compared to UK averages for theft and vehicle crime. Seasonal factors may contribute to this pattern: as September marks the return to school and university freshers' week, the area's social dynamics shift, potentially increasing tensions in public spaces. The local retail and hospitality sectors, concentrated in Carmarthen's town centre, may also drive anti-social behaviour and other public order incidents, though these remain below UK averages for certain categories. This mix of elevated violent crime and relatively moderate property crime suggests a combination of local demographics and seasonal pressures, warranting careful analysis of underlying patterns.

September 2025 saw notable month-on-month shifts in Carmarthen's crime profile. Vehicle crime surged by 125%, rising from 4 to 9 incidents, a jump that may reflect increased traffic congestion during the start of the academic year. Robbery, previously absent in August, emerged with one reported case, while other thefts rose by 55.6% (9 to 14), potentially linked to opportunistic larceny in crowded areas. Conversely, burglary fell sharply by 80% (5 to 1), due to enhanced security measures or seasonal deterrence from colder weather. The violent crime category remains starkly elevated, with violence and sexual offences at 4.9 per 1,000 — 90% above the UK average. This dominance of violent crime contrasts with public order offences, which are 7% below the UK average, suggesting a local focus on more severe incidents. For residents, the 40.5% gap between Carmarthen's rate and the UK average is a clear indicator of the area's unique challenges. While property crime rates are broadly in line with national trends, the disproportionate emphasis on violent crime raises questions about community safety strategies and the need for targeted interventions in high-risk areas.

Carmarthen's September 2025 crime rate of 10.4 per 1,000 represents a 14.0% decrease from the previous month's 12.1 per 1,000, indicating a downward trend in overall criminal activity. On a daily basis, the area experienced approximately 5 crimes per day, a figure that translates to one reported crime for roughly every 96 residents over the course of the month. This monthly exposure rate provides context for residents, showing that while crime remains above the UK average, the frequency is not overwhelming. The population-scaled perspective reveals that the 15,295 residents of Carmarthen face a higher risk of violent crime compared to the national average, but property crime rates are more moderate. The decline from August may be influenced by the transition into autumn, with shorter evenings potentially reducing opportunities for certain types of crime. However, the persistence of elevated violent crime rates suggests deeper issues that require sustained attention. Comparing these figures to the UK context underscores the need for tailored local solutions, as Carmarthen's profile diverges from national patterns in both the types and severity of incidents reported.