Carmarthen Crime Rate February 2026 | Monthly Statistics

For a population of 15,295 residents, Carmarthen recorded 222 crimes in February 2026—a rate of 14.5 per 1,000 people, 126.6% above the UK average of 6.4 per 1,000. This stark discrepancy underscores the built-up area's elevated crime burden compared to national trends. The most prevalent crime type was violence and sexual offences, accounting for 41.9% of all incidents (93 cases), a figure 163% higher than the UK average of 2.3 per 1,000. Shoplifting followed closely, with 41 cases (18.5% of total) at 366% above the UK average of 0.6 per 1,000. These figures align with the area's characteristics as a mixed urban-rural hub, where public spaces and commercial centres may contribute to higher rates of violent and property crimes. The seasonal context of February—a winter month with limited outdoor activity—may have exacerbated tensions in confined environments. The dominance of violent crime over property crime contrasts with the UK profile, where property crimes typically outnumber violent ones. This imbalance could reflect local factors such as the presence of transient populations, limited policing resources, or socioeconomic conditions that heighten interpersonal conflict. The data also reveals a significant gap between Carmarthen's crime profile and the national average, with violent offences and shoplifting emerging as critical areas for targeted intervention. While the UK average for public order offences is 0.4 per 1,000, Carmarthen's rate of 1.1 per 1,000 suggests a need for enhanced community engagement strategies to address disturbances that may contribute to the broader crime picture. The seasonal lull in outdoor activity, combined with the proximity to major transport routes and retail hubs, likely creates conditions where indoor conflicts and commercial crimes are more prevalent. However, the exact mechanisms driving these patterns require further analysis beyond the scope of this report.

February 2026 saw a 70.8% increase in shoplifting, with 41 incidents reported—far exceeding the UK average of 0.6 per 1,000. This surge, from 24 cases in January, suggests a potential link to seasonal factors or local retail dynamics. Theft from the person also doubled, rising from 0 to 2 cases, a stark contrast to the UK average of 0.1 per 1,000. Meanwhile, robbery cases halved, dropping from 2 to 1, though this remains 11% above the UK average. The crime mix shows a marked imbalance, with 41.9% of incidents classified as violence and sexual offences—163% above the UK average. This dominance of violent crime contrasts with the relatively low rate of vehicle crime, which was 14% below the UK average. Residents might find the doubling of theft from the person particularly concerning, given the small number of cases and their sudden emergence. The sharp rise in shoplifting, combined with the high rate of violence, illustrates a community grappling with both public safety and commercial security challenges.

Carmarthen's crime rate in February 2026 rose to 14.5 per 1,000 residents, a 19.9% increase from 12.1 per 1,000 in January. This translates to roughly 8 crimes reported daily, a figure that underscores the persistent presence of criminal activity in the built-up area. Over the course of the month, 1 crime occurred for every 69 residents, a ratio that highlights the frequency of incidents relative to the local population. With 15,295 residents, the 222 total crimes recorded represent a significant burden on the community, particularly when compared to the UK average of 6.4 per 1,000. The population-scaled perspective reveals that the area's crime burden is not only higher than the national average but also concentrated in certain categories. Daily crime counts, while a useful metric, must be contextualised within the broader picture of local demographics and geography. The built-up nature of Carmarthen, with its mix of urban and semi-rural characteristics, likely contributes to the patterns observed.