Carmarthenshire Crime Rate November 2024 | Monthly Statistics

Violence and sexual offences in Carmarthenshire accounted for nearly half (49.5%) of all crimes in November 2024, with a rate of 3.3 per 1,000 residents — 28% above the UK average of 2.6 per 1,000. This stark contrast to the overall crime rate of 6.7 per 1,000 (11.8% below the UK average) highlights a significant imbalance in crime distribution. The area's seasonal context — marked by Bonfire Night, Black Friday shopping, and extended dark evenings — may partly explain the elevated levels of violence. While property crimes (332 total) formed 25.9% of reported incidents, violent crimes dominated, reflecting patterns often seen in rural-urban mixed areas where community tensions and social events intersect. Anti-social behaviour, at 0.5 per 1,000, was 55% below the UK average, suggesting effective local interventions or lower prevalence in certain areas. The data illustrates a profile where violent crime remains a pressing concern despite the overall lower crime rate, requiring targeted strategies to address specific risk factors. This month's figures contrast with the previous year's seasonal trends, where November typically sees a spike in retail-related thefts due to holiday shopping, though this year's shoplifting rate (0.3 per 1,000) was 57% below the UK average — an anomaly that may reflect successful policing efforts or shifting consumer behaviour.

November 2024 saw a 400% increase in bicycle theft, rising from 1 to 5 incidents — a sharp departure from the UK average of 0.1 per 1,000. This spike, coupled with an 83.3% rise in theft from the person (6 to 11 cases), may be linked to increased foot traffic during Black Friday sales or heightened opportunism in darker evenings. Conversely, burglary fell by 30.4% (56 to 39 cases), aligning with historical trends where winter months see reduced property crime due to closed businesses and fewer outdoor opportunities. The area's violent crime rate (3.3 per 1,000) remains 28% above the UK average, a disparity that could reflect local factors such as population density in key towns or the influence of seasonal social events. Carmarthenshire's shoplifting rate (0.3 per 1,000) was 57% below the UK average — a figure that would be particularly useful for retailers assessing risk in their premises. The month-on-month shift from a 7.3 to 6.7 crime rate (7.6% decrease) suggests that targeted policing or community initiatives may have had a measurable impact, though further analysis is needed to confirm causality.

Carmarthenshire's November 2024 crime rate of 6.7 per 1,000 represents a 7.6% decrease from the previous month's rate of 7.3, marking a downward trend that contrasts with the UK average's usual seasonal fluctuations. Over the 30-day period, the area recorded an average of 43 crimes per day — a figure that, while lower than the UK's typical November averages, must be contextualised within Carmarthenshire's population of 190,800 residents. The monthly exposure statistic reveals that 1 in every 149 residents experienced a reported crime, a ratio that is 11.8% below the UK average but still significant for local residents. When comparing to the previous month, the 30.4% drop in burglary cases and 30.1% decrease in shoplifting suggest that targeted interventions in retail areas may have had an effect. However, the 28% above-average rate for violence and sexual offences indicates a need for continued focus on community safety initiatives. The daily crime count, while seemingly high, is mitigated by the area's relatively low population density compared to major urban centres, though this does not diminish the importance of addressing the persistent gap in violent crime rates.