Carmarthenshire Crime Rate January 2026 | Monthly Statistics

Carmarthenshire’s overall crime rate in January 2026 remained exactly in line with the UK average at 6.6 per 1,000 residents, a figure that reflects a stable position relative to national trends. The most significant category of reported crime was violence and sexual offences, which accounted for 45% of all incidents, followed by criminal damage and arson (12.6%) and anti-social behaviour (11.3%). This distribution highlights a persistent emphasis on interpersonal and property-related crime, consistent with patterns seen in other Welsh local authorities. The post-holiday period in January typically sees reduced retail footfall and shorter daylight hours, which may contribute to a shift in crime patterns. Violence and sexual offences in Carmarthenshire are 23% above the UK average, a disparity that could be influenced by local factors such as population density or social dynamics. Meanwhile, categories like anti-social behaviour and criminal damage are also elevated compared to the UK, suggesting a need for targeted interventions in community spaces. The absence of significant spikes in theft from the person or bicycle theft aligns with the seasonal context of reduced outdoor activity, though the sharp 100% increase in robbery reported this month warrants closer scrutiny. These findings underscore the importance of contextual analysis when interpreting crime statistics, as local conditions can shape outcomes in ways that diverge from national averages.

January 2026 saw three notable increases in crime categories, with robbery rising by 100% from zero to three incidents—a stark anomaly requiring attention. Anti-social behaviour surged by 43.9%, climbing from 98 to 141 reports, a jump that may reflect heightened tensions during the post-holiday period or changes in community engagement. Possession of weapons also rose by 36.4%, from 11 to 15 cases, a figure that could indicate shifting patterns in drug-related activity or other illicit behaviours. These increases contrast with declines in certain areas: bicycle theft fell by 75% to just one incident, likely due to reduced outdoor activity in colder weather, while theft from the person dropped by 25% to three reports. The UK average comparison reveals that Carmarthenshire’s violent crime rate is 23% higher than the national figure, a disparity that may be linked to local demographic factors such as the presence of multiple towns or rural-urban divides. Conversely, categories like other theft and shoplifting are significantly below the UK average, with the latter at 45% below, suggesting effective local strategies in retail crime prevention. Residents should be particularly vigilant regarding the sharp rise in robbery, which, though small in absolute terms, represents a complete reversal from the previous month’s zero incidents. This anomaly may signal a need for enhanced security measures in high-risk areas, especially during periods of reduced visibility and foot traffic.

Carmarthenshire’s crime rate in January 2026 remained stable compared to December 2025, with a 1.4% increase from 6.5 to 6.6 per 1,000 residents. This consistency suggests no major shifts in overall criminal activity over the short term, though the breakdown of crime types reveals nuanced changes. On a daily basis, the area experienced approximately 40 crimes per day, a figure that, while not alarming, underscores the ongoing presence of criminal activity in a population of 190,800. Over the course of the month, one crime was reported for every 153 residents, a monthly exposure rate that, when contextualized, illustrates the relative safety of the area compared to locations with higher population densities or more concentrated criminal activity. This figure is particularly relevant for residents assessing risk: while the overall rate matches the UK average, the distribution of crime types shows both strengths and vulnerabilities. For instance, the 23% deficit in anti-social behaviour compared to the UK average may reflect effective community policing or local initiatives, whereas the 70% elevation in criminal damage and arson highlights a specific challenge. Population-scale analysis further reveals that Carmarthenshire’s lower rates in theft from the person and bicycle theft align with the seasonal context of reduced outdoor activity, though the 100% increase in robbery remains an outlier requiring further investigation. These comparisons provide a benchmark for understanding how local conditions shape crime outcomes relative to national trends.