Ceredigion Crime Rate September 2023 | Monthly Statistics

Ceredigion's crime profile in September 2023 reveals a marked dominance of violent crimes over property offences, a pattern that may reflect the area's seasonal rhythms and community dynamics. With an overall crime rate of 5.9 per 1,000 residents—26.2% below the UK average—the local authority district continues to perform well relative to national benchmarks. Violence and sexual offences accounted for 44.7% of all reported incidents, far exceeding the 23.3% share attributed to property crimes. This imbalance, while not unusual for a rural area, warrants closer examination of local factors such as the timing of university freshers' week or the return to structured routines after summer holidays. Anti-social behaviour, at 1.1 per 1,000, was 18% below the UK average, suggesting effective community policing or environmental deterrents. The seasonal context of September—marked by the back-to-school transition and diminishing daylight—likely influences both the nature and frequency of crimes. For instance, the decline in shoplifting may correlate with reduced foot traffic in retail areas, while the persistence of violent crime could reflect unmet needs in mental health or social cohesion. Although direct causation, the pattern is consistent with rural districts where interpersonal conflicts may escalate during periods of social disruption. The relatively low rate of vehicle crime (0.0 per 1,000) and theft from the person (0.0 per 1,000) further reinforces the idea that Ceredigion's crime picture is shaped by its unique demographic and geographic characteristics.

September 2023 saw a stark contrast in crime trends, with possession of weapons surging by 160% (5 to 13 incidents) and shoplifting plummeting by 55% (29 to 13). This shift underscores a growing imbalance between violent and property crime, with the former dominating at 44.7% of total incidents. The rate of violent crimes—2.6 per 1,000—remained 5% below the UK average, while anti-social behaviour (1.1 per 1,000) was 18% below the national benchmark. The 186% spike in weapons possession, though small in absolute terms, raises questions about local enforcement priorities or unreported incidents. For residents, the 55% drop in shoplifting offers a tangible benefit, potentially linked to seasonal retail activity or targeted policing efforts. Meanwhile, burglary rose by 33.3% (12 to 16), suggesting a need for continued vigilance in securing properties during the autumn months.

Ceredigion's crime rate in September 2023 fell to 5.9 per 1,000 residents, a 3.4% decrease from the previous month's rate of 6.1. This reduction, though modest, aligns with the seasonal transition into autumn, when community activity shifts toward indoor spaces and structured routines. Over the course of the month, one reported crime occurred for roughly every 169 residents, a figure that contextualises the monthly exposure in a way that avoids overstating risk. Daily crime counts averaged 14 per day, a local metric that reflects both the pace of policing and the nature of incidents in a rural district. While this rate remains 26.2% below the UK average, the comparison section must avoid speculative interpretation of the gap—instead, it highlights the localised factors that shape Ceredigion's crime picture. The population-scaled perspective reveals that, despite the 430 total crimes, the rate remains low enough to suggest effective community engagement or environmental factors that mitigate risk.