Bourton-on-the-Water Crime Rate July 2023 | Monthly Statistics

July 2023 presented a paradox for Bourton-on-the-Water: a crime rate of 4.1 per 1,000 residents—50.6% below the UK average—coexisted with a sharp rise in violence and sexual offences, which surged by 83.3% compared to the previous month. This anomaly highlights the complexities of interpreting crime data in a historic, low-density built-up area within the Cotswolds, where seasonal patterns and tourism influence local dynamics. The overall crime rate, while markedly lower than the UK average, masks significant shifts within categories: violent crimes, though still 32% below the UK average for the category, now constitute 45.8% of all reported incidents, up from 25% in June. Anti-social behaviour, which accounted for 20.8% of total crimes, fell by 37.5% month-on-month, consistent with the area’s generally tranquil character. The seasonal context of July—peak tourism, school holidays, and festivals—likely contributes to the volatility in certain crime types, such as the unexpected increase in violence. This could reflect heightened activity in public spaces during summer evenings, though the small absolute numbers (11 incidents) mean the impact remains limited. Meanwhile, property crimes, which made up 16.7% of the total (four incidents), remained relatively stable, with burglary and shoplifting both falling to single figures. The area’s low population density and rural setting may explain the persistence of such low rates, as well as the absence of major urban crime drivers like nightlife or high-traffic retail zones. However, the spike in violent offences raises questions about local factors, such as increased foot traffic during festivals or unseasonal weather patterns, though these remain speculative without further data. Overall, the month illustrates how even small communities can experience sharp fluctuations in crime types, underscoring the need for nuanced analysis beyond raw statistics.

July 2023 saw a striking 83.3% increase in violence and sexual offences, rising from six to 11 incidents—a shift that contrasts with the overall downward trend in crime. This jump, though still 32% below the UK average for the category, raises questions about local factors during the peak summer season. Concurrently, other crime surged by 200%, with three incidents reported, a category that includes offences like fraud or disorderly conduct not typically associated with the area. This spike highlights a potential gap in monitoring or reporting, given the Cotswolds’ typically low incidence of such crimes. Meanwhile, anti-social behaviour fell by 37.5%, and burglary dropped by 50%, consistent with the area’s generally quiet nature. The data also reveals that shoplifting, though still below the UK average, doubled from zero to one incident—a rare occurrence in this historic market town. These fluctuations, while statistically significant, must be interpreted cautiously given the small numbers involved.

Bourton-on-the-Water’s crime rate in July 2023 (4.1 per 1,000 residents) marked a 3.8% decrease from the previous month’s 4.2 per 1,000, reflecting a slight but consistent trend of declining incidents. Over the course of the month, one reported crime occurred for roughly every 247 residents—a figure that underscores the area’s relative safety compared to national averages. On a daily basis, the area experienced approximately one crime per day, a pace that aligns with the low overall rate and the town’s character as a historic, low-density built-up area within the Cotswolds. When scaled to the population, the 24 total crimes reported in July represent a manageable burden for a community of nearly 6,000 residents, though the small absolute numbers mean local patterns can fluctuate significantly from month to month. This context is critical for residents assessing risk, as the monthly exposure figure provides a clearer picture of how frequently crime intersects with daily life in this setting.