Ash and Ash Vale Crime Rate September 2024 | Monthly Statistics

Ash and Ash Vale, a built-up area within Guildford, recorded a crime rate of 4.2 per 1,000 residents in September 2024, placing it 45.5% below the UK average of 7.7 per 1,000. This figure underscores a consistent pattern of lower-than-average crime levels, particularly in categories such as violence and sexual offences, which accounted for 37.4% of all incidents. The area’s crime profile is shaped by its urban character, with retail and residential hubs likely contributing to anti-social behaviour and criminal damage. Seasonal factors, including the back-to-school period and the start of university terms, may have influenced patterns. Violence and sexual offences remained the most prevalent category, followed by anti-social behaviour and criminal damage. The UK average for violence and sexual offences is 2.6 per 1,000, meaning the area’s rate is 39% below the national figure. Similarly, anti-social behaviour in Ash and Ash Vale is 40% below the UK average, suggesting a lower incidence of disruptive incidents compared to other regions. The relatively low rate of shoplifting—71% below the UK average—may reflect the area’s retail mix, which includes smaller, community-focused businesses rather than large high-street chains. While the overall crime rate remains stable, the interplay of seasonal transitions and local demographics likely plays a role in shaping these figures. Further analysis would be needed to determine whether these trends are sustained or influenced by temporary factors such as temporary population shifts or changes in police activity.

The most dramatic shift in September 2024 was the 100% increase in robbery, with one incident reported after none in August. This spike, though small in absolute terms, contrasts sharply with the 100% drop in bicycle theft and the 38.5% reduction in public order offences, which fell from 13 to 8. The category of violence and sexual offences also saw a notable 24.5% decrease, declining from 53 to 40. This reduction may be linked to the seasonal transition, as nights draw in and university freshers begin settling into routines. However, the rise in drug-related offences—from one to two—suggests a potential shift in local patterns, though the small sample size limits definitive conclusions. The area’s violent crime rate remains 39% below the UK average, while anti-social behaviour is 40% below the national figure, reflecting a broader trend of lower-than-average incidents in categories tied to community disorder.

September 2024 saw a 15.8% decline in the area’s crime rate, dropping from 5.0 to 4.2 per 1,000 residents. This follows a trend of consistent reductions in recent months, though the pace of decline slowed compared to earlier in the year. On a daily basis, the area recorded approximately four crimes per day, a figure that reflects the low overall rate but remains a local metric with no direct UK-wide equivalent. Over the course of the month, one reported crime occurred for roughly every 237 residents, a statistic that contextualises the scale of incidents in a population of 25,357. When considering the broader picture, the area’s crime rate remains 45.5% below the UK average, highlighting a persistent divergence from national trends. This gap is particularly pronounced in categories like robbery and drugs, which are 100% below the UK average. However, the local context—such as the presence of educational institutions and commuter corridors—likely plays a role in shaping these figures, though further data would be needed to confirm specific drivers.