Bagillt Crime Rate November 2023 | Monthly Statistics

In November 2023, Bagillt’s crime profile reveals a stark contrast between violent and property crime, with violent offences accounting for 50% of all recorded incidents compared to 23% for property crimes. At 4.7 per 1,000 residents, the area’s overall crime rate is 37.3% below the UK average of 7.5 per 1,000, a disparity that suggests local factors may be contributing to a safer environment. Violence and sexual offences remain the most prevalent category, comprising 13 incidents (50% of total crimes), followed by anti-social behaviour (4 incidents, 15.4%) and other theft (2 incidents, 7.7%). This pattern diverges from the UK average, where violence and sexual offences typically account for around 2.6 per 1,000, and anti-social behaviour averages 1.1 per 1,000. The seasonal context of November—marked by Bonfire Night, Black Friday shopping, and extended evening darkness—may have influenced crime dynamics. While retail activity could theoretically drive property crime, the data instead highlights a higher proportion of violent incidents, linked to increased social interactions during festive events. The relatively low property crime rate, despite the holiday shopping period, may reflect community-specific factors such as local policing strategies, community engagement, or the built-up area’s character. However, without further data on local initiatives or demographics, these remain speculative. The absence of significant spikes in vehicle crime or burglary—categories often tied to urban centres—further underscores the unique crime profile of this rural-adjacent built-up area.

November 2023 saw a 100% increase in 'other crime' incidents, rising from 1 to 2, a category that includes non-specific offences not falling under other major categories. This shift contrasts with notable declines in criminal damage and arson (-80%), public order offences (-75%), and anti-social behaviour (-55.6%), suggesting a reallocation of criminal activity rather than an overall rise in crime. The dominance of violent crimes (13 incidents) over property crimes (6 incidents) marks a significant deviation from the UK average, where violent offences typically constitute a smaller proportion of total crime. Bagillt’s violent crime rate (2.4 per 1,000) is 7% below the UK average (2.6 per 1,000), indicating a local resilience to violence despite the month’s seasonal events. Anti-social behaviour, at 0.7 per 1,000, is 33% below the UK average (1.1 per 1,000), a figure that could be attributed to community cohesion or effective local interventions. However, 'other crime'—a category that includes non-specific offences—surpasses the UK average by 208%, with 0.4 per 1,000 compared to the UK’s 0.1 per 1,000. This anomaly deserves closer attention, though its precise nature remains unclear without further breakdown. For residents, the most immediately relevant statistic is the 50% drop in the crime rate from 9.5 per 1,000 in the previous month, reflecting a marked improvement in local safety metrics.

Bagillt’s crime rate in November 2023 (4.7 per 1,000) represents a 50% decline from the previous month’s rate of 9.5 per 1,000, a significant shift that may reflect seasonal changes or targeted interventions. On a daily basis, the area recorded approximately one crime per day over the 30-day period, a figure that, while low, highlights the potential for sudden spikes in specific categories—such as the 100% increase in 'other crime'—to impact local safety. When scaled to the population of 5,484 residents, the monthly exposure translates to one reported crime for every 211 residents, a ratio that is lower than the UK average but must be interpreted with caution. This monthly aggregate does not account for daily fluctuations, such as the 80% drop in criminal damage and arson or the 75% reduction in public order offences, which may indicate improved policing or community engagement during the month. The population-scaled perspective also underscores the area’s relative safety, with violent crimes (13 incidents) and anti-social behaviour (4 incidents) occurring at rates significantly below the UK average. However, the 208% increase in 'other crime' over the UK average (0.4 vs 0.1 per 1,000) raises questions about the nature of these incidents and whether they represent underreported or unclassified offences. For residents, the combination of a 50% monthly decline and a 37.3% year-on-year gap from the UK average suggests a combination of local factors, though the absence of detailed demographic or policy data limits further analysis.