Bagillt Crime Rate October 2023 | Monthly Statistics

Violence and sexual offences dominate Bagillt's crime profile in October 2023, accounting for 51.9% of all reported crimes. This category alone exceeds the UK average by 81%, with 4.9 crimes per 1,000 residents compared to the national rate of 2.7 per 1,000. The overall crime rate for the area stands at 9.5 per 1,000 residents, placing it 18.8% above the UK average of 8.0. This disparity highlights a distinct local pattern, likely influenced by the built-up area's characteristics and seasonal factors. October's shorter evenings, compounded by the clocks going back, may have extended periods of low visibility in public spaces, potentially contributing to the rise in violent incidents. Anti-social behaviour and criminal damage also feature prominently, with both categories exceeding UK averages by 25% and 43% respectively. These findings contrast with lower-than-average rates for vehicle crime and other theft, suggesting a mixed crime profile shaped by local dynamics. The seasonal context of Halloween and the transition into darker evenings could have amplified tensions in communal areas, although this remains a hedged interpretation. The area's relatively small population of 5,484 residents means that each crime has a more pronounced impact on community perception, even if the absolute numbers remain modest.

Violence and sexual offences surged to 27 cases in October, marking the highest single category in the monthly report. This represents an 81% increase over the UK average for the same category, with 4.9 crimes per 1,000 residents. A stark anomaly emerged in possession of weapons offences, which rose from zero to one case—a 100% increase—despite the UK average for this category being 0.1 per 1,000. Public order offences also saw a notable rise, increasing by 33.3% to four cases, which is 19% above the UK average. Meanwhile, burglary rates fell by 33.3% compared to the previous month, with only two incidents recorded. This decline contrasts with the overall upward trend in violent crime and may reflect targeted policing efforts or seasonal changes in property crime patterns. The data also reveals an interesting divergence: while vehicle crime and other theft remain below UK averages, violent crime rates are significantly elevated. This imbalance suggests that local factors—such as the built-up area's social dynamics or seasonal pressures—play a more influential role than national trends in shaping Bagillt's crime picture. For residents, the 100% jump in weapons possession cases may raise particular concerns about public safety in communal spaces.

Bagillt's crime rate in October 2023 rose to 9.5 per 1,000 residents, an 8.3% increase from the previous month's rate of 8.8. This places the area's crime profile in a distinct position relative to the UK average, with the overall rate remaining 18.8% higher than the national figure. On a daily basis, the area experienced approximately two crimes per day in October—a figure that, while modest, translates to one reported crime for every 105 residents over the course of the month. This monthly exposure rate underscores the tangible impact of crime on local communities, even in a small built-up area. Compared to the previous month, the shift in crime mix is notable: violent crimes now constitute 51.9% of all incidents, up from a lower proportion in September. This change may reflect seasonal factors, such as the impact of shorter evenings and Halloween on community interactions. The population-scaled perspective further highlights that each resident in Bagillt faces a slightly higher risk of encountering crime than the UK average, despite the area's relatively low absolute numbers. This disparity suggests that local conditions—whether social, economic, or environmental—may amplify crime rates in ways that diverge from national patterns. The comparison also reveals a stark contrast between Bagillt's elevated violent crime rates and its below-average vehicle crime figures, pointing to the need for targeted local analysis rather than broad generalisations.