Baglan Crime Rate October 2024 | Monthly Statistics

The crime profile in Baglan during October 2024 reveals a distinct emphasis on violent and disorderly conduct compared to other areas. Of the 60 total crimes reported, 46.7% (28 incidents) fell under violence and sexual offences, a category that is 18% below the UK average of 2.7 per 1,000. This suggests a localised pattern where interpersonal conflict and aggression are more prevalent than property-related crime. Anti-social behaviour accounted for 20.0% of incidents (12 cases), another category where Baglan performs 22% below the UK average. This mix indicates a community where social tensions may play a larger role than economic or property-driven crime. The third most common category, criminal damage and arson (16.7% of total crimes), is 36% above the UK average for this type, highlighting a specific vulnerability in this area. Seasonal factors likely contribute to these patterns: October’s darker evenings and Halloween activities may amplify anti-social behaviour, while the absence of major retail events reduces shoplifting and other theft-related crimes. The overall crime rate of 4.8 per 1,000 residents places Baglan significantly below the UK average of 8.1, reflecting a safer environment despite the concentration of violent incidents. This balance between lower property crime and higher violent crime may indicate a community where social cohesion challenges outweigh economic pressures as the primary driver of criminal activity.

October 2024 saw notable shifts in Baglan’s crime mix, with anti-social behaviour increasing by 50% to 12 incidents (from 8 in September). This jump aligns with the seasonal context of Halloween and shorter daylight hours, which may encourage more nocturnal disturbances. Burglary also rose sharply, doubling from 1 to 2 incidents—a 100% increase—potentially linked to increased home security measures in adjacent areas creating false perceptions of safety. Conversely, public order offences fell by 40% (from 5 to 3 cases), due to reduced alcohol-related incidents during the month. The category of 'other crime' surged by 100% as it moved from zero to one reported incident, though this may reflect data collection anomalies rather than a true increase. Violent crimes remain the dominant category, but their rate of 2.2 per 1,000 is 18% below the UK average for this type. This contrast with the 36% above average rate for criminal damage and arson suggests that while Baglan’s residents face fewer threats of physical violence than the national average, they experience higher risks of property damage and vandalism. These findings highlight a combination of local social dynamics and external seasonal factors, with the latter likely playing a stronger role in shaping the month’s crime profile.

Baglan’s crime rate in October 2024 rose by 3.4% compared to the previous month’s rate of 4.6 per 1,000, indicating a slight upward trend. This increase, though modest, is measured against a backdrop where the area remains 40.7% below the UK average. Locally, the daily crime count averaged 2 incidents per day over the 31-day period, a figure that suggests manageable levels of criminal activity for residents. Over the course of the month, one reported crime occurred for every 208 residents—a monthly exposure rate that is significantly lower than the UK average when scaled to the same population size. With a population of 12,497, Baglan’s crime statistics demonstrate a population-scaled safety that contrasts with its concentration of violent crimes. While the 3.4% increase from September may raise local concerns, the context of the UK-wide average and the area’s historically low crime rates suggest this is more reflective of natural monthly fluctuations than a systemic issue. Residents living in Baglan should note that despite the slight rise, the area continues to maintain a crime profile that is markedly safer than the national average, particularly in categories like theft from the person and shoplifting, which are 86% and 64% below UK rates respectively.